Research on the application of ARMA model in China’s trade economic development

Xue Wu

Business Administration College, Chongqing University of Science and Technology, Chongqing city, China, 401331

The slowing down development of China’s foreign trade brings significant impact to its regional economy, which makes many middle and small-sized export enterprises facing with business crisis and even bankruptcy. In this paper, a deep analysis on the development status of China’s trade economy was conducted with ARMA model. The short-term development trend and causes of China’s trade economy were predicted and analyzed. Results demonstrated that China’s imports will decrease while export will keep increasing. The balance of trade in China will decrease and the total volume of foreign trade will decline. This indicates the depression of China’s trade economy, which is against China’s economic development. To improve the export structure and facilitate the rapid development of trade economy, China is suggested to adopt various measures, such as optimizing fiscal policy, promoting technology upgrading, enhancing export management and perfect import-export infrastructures. Meanwhile, China shall expand domestic demand vigorously to offset impact of trade economic slowdown on regional economy.