Research on the cost estimation of transmission line project with case-based reasoning

Tao Yi, Shanshan Cui, Yi Zhang

Department of Management science and Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, China

Investment estimation phase of power transmission line project is an important stage of project cost control, the traditional unit investment forecasting methods, however, cannot meet the need of engineering rapid estimation. The research objective of this paper is to forecast the unit investment of the Transmission Line Project applying the case-based reasoning system. Based on the factor analysis tools of multivariate statistical software SPSS, the correlation coefficient matrix of characteristics factors are identified, and weight coefficient of characteristics factors is calculated. Based on the formula of European weighted distance, the similarity is calculated and case similarity is retrieved. Finally, the model is constructed to predict the unit investment of Transmission Line project, and the correctness and usefulness of the model is verified. It is shown that this case-based reasoning system of unit investment can achieve real-time updating of cost index database. The primary contribution of this research is the combination of the cost forecast and Case-based reasoning system of artificial intelligence. It is expected that this work will provide a reference and guidance for transmission line project investment decision in estimating phase.