VAR dynamic analysis of the impact of population structure on urban residential land price: the case of Zhengzhou
Zhaoxia Si1, 2, Ningli Chen2
1School of Environment and Spatial Informatics, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, 221116, China
2Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo, 454000, China
Based on the vector autoregression model, this paper focuses on Zhengzhou and uses the 1994–2013 population structural variables and relevant data on commercial and residential land price to analyze the dynamic relationship between population structure and residential land price through impulse response function and variance decomposition. Results show a co-integration between Zhengzhou residential land price and three variables, namely, urbanization rate, per capita disposable income, and household size. The short-term variation in land price is mainly caused by the residential land price itself, and the three population substructural variables show long-term effects on the land price with a certain time lag. Among these variables, per capita disposable income has the shortest positive effect on residential land price, whereas urbanization rate has the longest and most remarkable positive effect.